One sample Z hypothesis test for Proportion
Null hypothesis H0: already known, established, default, status quo, old,
pre-existing, current practice, well-known,
working assumption, nothing new, boring. The (generic) parameter φ equals some number a;
there is no difference.
Alternative hypothesis HA: new, exciting, hoped/wished, changed, different, research,
challenger, the conjecture.
Either the parameter p<a, or p>a, or p≠a;
there is a difference, there is an effect.
Test if the sample (i.e. its statistic and its size, n) provides enough evidence
to overthrow ("warrant rejection of") the null hypothesis.
Is the sample statistic extreme enough.
Either "reject" or "fail to reject" the null hypothesis; never "accept" it.
Rejecting it ≡ "support" the alternative.
The alternative hypothesis is neither rejected nor accepted.
Nothing is ever "proven". (would need entire population to prove anything)
1-PropZTest for proportion p.
Uses #yeses or p̂, p, and n.
Test statistic is z.
Binary nominal data.
Normal distribution is approximating a Binomial distribution.
The test statistic is a measure of discrepancy between a sample statistic
and the H0 claimed value of the population parameter.
Exs.
p=.5 482 / 926 = p̂ ≈52% right-tailed
Mendel peas(?)
p=.25 152 / 580 = p̂ ≈.262
sleepwalking
p=.3 p̂=.292 n=19136
With very large sample a very small difference between p̂ and claimed p can be "significant".
biometric security
p=.5 270 / 510 = p̂ ≈.5294118
malpractice
p=.5 856 / 1228 = p̂ ≈.697068
NB. p-hacking: great pressures (professional, monetary, publication bias, ideological)
to have positive result.
So cheating and lying by:
stop data collection when p≤.05
discard data that prevents p≤.05
repeat the experiment until get p≤.05
test for different effects until find one with p≤.05
NB. Also possible to have:
H0: φ≤a and HA: φ>a
H0: φ≥a and HA: φ<a
NB. With very large sample a very small difference between p̂ and claimed p
can be "significant".